ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook

April 17, 1998 Volume 3, No. 15

Published by the Information Technology Association of
America, Arlington, VA Bob Cohen, Editor
bcohen@itaa.org

Read in over 60 countries around the world

ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook is sponsored in part by BDM
International, Inc., CACI International Inc., DMR
Consulting Group Inc., IBS Conversions, Inc.,
Softworks, Inc. and Y2Kplus, Inc.

FCC Announces Y2K Initiatives

The Federal Communication Commission (FCC) announced a
series of Y2K initiatives this week to raise Y2K
awareness within the communications industries.  The
move comes just days before the FCC will testify on
this topic before the Senate Commerce Committe e. The
series of initiatives announced include placing
Commissioner Michael Powell on the federal Y2K Council,
creation of a special website, formation of a task
force to provide consumers and industry with Y2K
information, and outreach to state public u tility
commissions and public service commissions.  A
statement released by the FCC says the agency will
gather Y2K information from the communications
industries and coordinate with telecommunications
providers, equipment manufacturers, telephone custome
rs and trade organizations.  The FCC website is
http://www.fcc.gov/year2000/.

California Mulls Embedded Issues; Analyst Recommends
$500 Million Budget Hike A joint hearing this week of
three California Senate and Assembly Committees raised
question marks if not clear answers on the state’s
embedded systems vulnerabilities.  This was the
Senate’s first hearing on the issue, which featured a
presentation by state CIO John Thomas Flynn.  The
Department of Information Technology (DOIT) will
release a report on the embedded chip issue May 15 and
it is expected to provide an assist to agencies making
their embedded system assessments.

Meanwhile, a spokesperson for the Senate Select
Committee on Procurement, Expenditures and Information
Technology summed the situation up in a few words:
"We’re behind."  Committee Consultant Teri Burns said
that while DOIT’s intention to issue the repor t is
encouraging, it is not clear that state agencies are
doing much on embedded system remediation overall.  She
said agencies have been reporting on the Y2K status of
their information systems for several months, but will
not start reporting on embedded systems until
September.  "We’ve lost a year," she said.

Burns also said that a state legislative analyst’s
report pegs additional Y2K costs for California
government at $500 million.  If approved, the
additional funding would be added to the state’s
current $560 million budget.  Part of the increase,
Burns sai d, would help the state hang on to its
technical workforce, which she said is being lured away
by lucrative offers from the private sector.  Other
costs would include fixing embedded systems and
responding to unanticipated problems.

Meta Guru Says Factory Performance Stresses Customers’
Ability to Cope Year 2000 software factories may be
outstripping the ability of customers to keep up.  Meta
Group Vice President Richard Evans says their
performance has become "phenomenally good" in the last
year, with improvements in speed and quality making it
diffic ult for customers to keep up.  Evans made his
remarks at a recent Meta Group briefing in Boston:
"Year 2000: What It Takes to Stay in Business."  Evans
says that software factories with the same staffing
levels as a year ago can process twice as much cod e.
Factory tools, he says, have gotten good; so good, in
fact, that customers have become hard pressed to both
provide their code and test it once it’s done.

Companies cannot feed the factories fast enough, Evans
maintains, indicating that among Meta clients about 30
percent of code has been remediated.  These companies,
what Meta calls the "Global 2000," are over $100
million enterprises.  He says companies a re surprised
at how quickly the converted code comes back from the
factory.  This speed up has Meta rethinking what it
takes to complete a Y2K project.  And what it may take
to perform the testing phase of the work.  Evans says
his firm is ready to up its estimate on testing from 60
to 80 percent of the entire program.

Evans estimates that his customers have 20 to 25
percent of their code in the test phase.  The code is
coming back so fast, however, that they can do little
with it beyond minimal testing, the consultant says.
Making matters more difficult is the need in some cases
to wait for Y2K compliant versions of particular
products.  Some pieces of the system may be ready for
more rigorous testing, Evans says, and others are
missing.  Customers may press forward and build
workarounds, others may decide to wait for compliant
implementations of a particular application, utility or
platform.  And even if the decision is made to do
testing, without all of the pieces of the puzzle in
place, it’s a significant management challenge to
understand where and why faults may be happening, Evans
says.

Even when compliant versions are available, Evans says
important questions remain to be asked.  He suggests,
for instance, that clients ask their vendors how
software was made compliant.  He warns that
organizations and their vendors may have conflicting
definitions of a 100-year window.  Companies, he says,
which do not synchronize their windowing definitions
can be technically compliant and also run into
problems.  For instance, because of the definitional
differences, the expected 100 year fix may be g ood for
only 20 or 30 years.

Also of interest, Evans says 70 percent of Meta’s
Global 2000 are behind schedule on testing.  He also
says companies can count on using eight to ten testing
tools per platform, from data aging and scripting to
repositories and file manipulators.

Australia Takes to Air to Assault Y2K Apathy

The gods may be crazy, but it's about to start raining
government-sponsored Y2K television commercials in the
land down under.  Industry Minister John Moore
announced this week that $4.35 million has been
allocated to create consciousness raising televisi on
ads on the millennium issue, targeting small to
medium-sized businesses.  Moore said the campaign would
be similar to the government's gun buy-back campaign.

Even before the first ad hits the airwaves, however,
the idea has started to resonate with some century
concerned Australians.  "I think the Y2K ad campaign is
a forward thinking step in what is going to have to be
the world's most carefully executed mar keting
campaign," said journalist Margaret Banaghan.
Information economy editor with Business Review Weekly,
Banaghan wrote in a recent column prior to Moore's
announcement :

"This will have to be one of the most ingenious
marketing campaigns ever seen: selling a concept that,
if executed properly, means that nothing will change.
And all for a bargain price of about $10 million for a
large organisation…To motivate people to b uy this
"resultless" concept would take the power of marketing
specialists like Pepsi Co or even, dare it be said,
Microsoft.  Unfortunately the funds allocated by
governments for the Year 2000 fade in comparison to the
huge marketing budgets of these orga nisations."

Fade or not, Banaghan still thinks the move makes
sense.  "…if the campaign is thought through very
carefully, (not too technical as people may not give it
the necessary attention it deserves) it will be an
extremely useful tool in getting the word out an d
getting Australians into action."

Millennium messages for Melbourne?  Century rollover
campaigns for Canberra?  Y2K program plugs for Perth?
"Absolutely yes," says John Worthington, managing
director of a contingency planning firm in Sydney.
"Communication is essential and the governmen t
initiative [is] supported by me.  What I would like to
see, though, is what the government intends to say…"

Whatever the government message, ads airing sooner will
be better than later.  Murdoch University Professor
John Frodsham has been measuring how the world is
responding to its date with the digits.  He agrees that
the government advertising initiative mak es sense but
he includes a bit of commentary with his endorsement:
"Since so far only six…of 138 countries surveyed have
Y2K awareness campaigns, Australia is to be
congratulated on--somewhat belatedly--joining their
ranks….Of course, other countries sho uld follow our
lead," he says, "though it's already too late for
most."

Frodsham says "Only 37 of the 138 countries surveyed
have any awareness at all of Y2K!"

So the Australian government may be not a minute too
soon in taking its Y2K message to the business
community.  Banaghan says it’s ironic that "those who
are devising this campaign…are the ones who are lagging
way behind Australian businesses in becoming Y2K
compliant.  Even if slow in getting its own house in
order, Banaghan suggests that at least the government
has selected the right target for its message: "…as
small businesses are the largest revenue generating
sector in Australia it is crucial that their systems
are compliant.  The level of awareness in small
businesses today is still quite low so these campaigns
will be great to get to the mass market," she says.

Michael J. Lonie, Executive Director of ARA, is on the
Industry Liaison Group for marketing the government's
campaign.  Lonie maintains that while the level of
awareness among big business in his country is high,
that's as far as it goes.  "…the implicati ons of Y2K
upon business and business relationships are poor
amongst the small and medium sized enterprises," he
says, adding, "There is grave concern that many have
left their risk analysis too late and will not be able
to carry out the necessary remedia tion in time."

Lonie says companies utilizing electronic data
interchange technologies are a concern, as are those
with embedded system vulnerabilities.  He refers to
"the lack of any real programs in those industries
using embedded chips in their processes."

Taking to the airwaves makes sense, especially when the
view on the ground does not look so good.  Banaghan
recently wrote a Business Review Weekly cover story on
the Y2K and her research findings are sobering.  The
journalist says she spoke to many compan ies in
Australia and in the Asia Pacific region.  "In the
small to medium sector there is minimal work being
done.  Most still think that there's plenty of time,"
she says, adding, "But have those medium sized
manufacturers thought about the process control chips
that are running their plants?  Of the ones I spoke to,
about half had actually started to try to put all the
non-business systems…into some sort of inventory.…As
embedded systems may account for at least half the Y2K
work, this is a worry.  And mos t countries in Asia
(Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia...) are explosions
waiting to happen, in my opinion."

So what will it take to defuse the situation?  Banaghan
suggests a worldwide television advertising campaign,
perhaps under the purview of the United Nations, would
help get the job done.  As far as Australia itself is
concerned, Michael Lonie says, "If t his country is
going to be compliant it is going to a concerted effort
of the Federal Government in conjunction with State
Governments with the support of Industry
Associations….It will be about pooling resources and
materials to raise the awareness level to even a much
higher degree…an effort that will see industry take on
a "war footing" much like [what] was experienced in
this country during World War II."

IRS Commissioner Says Y2K Tab May Tally Near $1 Billion

Speaking to reporters following a House hearing this
week, Internal Revenue Commissioner Charles Rossotti
said the IRS may spend close to $1 billion to make its
Y2K fixes.  In his remarks before the House
Subcommittee on Government Management, Information and
Technology, Rossotti also expressed concerns about the
impact of proposed IRS reforms on the agency’s ability
to meet compliance schedules.

Microsoft Announces Y2K Website

Microsoft unveiled a Y2K website this week at
http://www.microsoft.com/year2000/.  "Of the products
tested, the vast majority are compliant, or compliant
with minor issues that are now fully documented," the
company says in a company release.  "Among the p
roducts that are compliant, or compliant with minor
issues, are Microsoft Windows NT server and workstation
4.0, Microsoft Windows 95, Office 4 Standard, Office 95
Standard and Professional editions and Office 97.  For
products that require a fix or servi ce pack, Microsoft
has provided this at no additional charge."

Business to Business

Sapiens International Corporation, Research Triangle
Park, NC, has announced the expansion of a Y2K
contract, now valued at over $3 million, by a leading
European insurance company.

Princeton Softech, a wholly owned subsidiary of
Computer Horizons Corp., Princeton, NJ, has entered
into a strategic agreement with Mercury Interactive.
Under the agreement, Princeton Softech will resell
Mercury Interactive's Y2K testing solutions.

Data Dimensions, Inc., Bellevue, WA, has been awarded a
$6.1 million Y2K contract by the Kaiser Foundation
Health Plan.

Sanwa Bank California, Farmington Hills, MI, has added
Complete Business Solutions, Inc. to their Y2K
conversion team.

IST Development, Inc., Boston, MA, has entered into a
partnership agreement with The Orkand Corporation.

SunGard Asset Management Systems, Cambridge, MA, has
won Y2K contracts with BancTrust, Scripps Bank and
Investors Trust Company.

C2I Solutions Inc., San Diego, CA, has entered into a
Y2K assessment agreement with Nicholas-Applegate
Capital Management.

PRC Inc., Reston, VA, has been awarded a Y2K contract
by the Medical Economics Company of New Jersey, to
perform its Enterprise-level Triage methodology for the
company's network-related products, assessing their
compliance status and recommending actions to control
risks.

Sponsor Advertising

BDM International (TRW Systems and Information
Technology Group)

Do you need help juggling all your Year 2000
responsibilities?  With BDM and our SMART/2000+SM
solutions, you have a partner to help address your most
critical business priorities and technical requirements
- from risk assessment, program management, and
conversion, to independent test and compliance
validation.

We deliver project tracking, configuration management,
and control metrics that help ensure enterprise-wide
integrity and minimize your risk from start to finish.
We have a mature process, a dedicated team, and
experience that demonstrate the strength of our
solutions.

Gain the upper hand now by calling BDM:

(800) 794-6085
e-mail: year2000@bdm.com
http://www.bdm.com.

CACI International Inc. -- Restore 2000

CACI leverages 35 years of information technology
experience and over 10 years of reengineering systems -
solving the same problems Y2K poses - to offer a total
solution to the Year 2000 challenge: Restore 2000SM.

The Restore 2000 methodology applies a comprehensive
three-phase process to your information systems:
Assess, Plan, and Remediate.  Furthermore, we give you
the option of buying our methodology or our services -
both backed by CACI experience and Y2K expe rts.

The Restore 2000 methodology is ITAA*2000 certified.
In addition, software development processes at CACI
have been independently certified as being at Level 3
of the Software Engineering Institute (SEI) Capability
Maturity Model.  Achieving SEI Level 3 p rovides
clients further assurance that CACI solutions
successfully and effectively deliver Year 2000
compliance while allowing you to save money, reduce
risk, and minimize systems disruption.

With approximately 3700 employees worldwide and FY97
revenues in excess of $270 million, CACI provides a
depth of experience and expertise you can rely on.
We've performed Year 2000 conversions for many of
America's biggest enterprises, including major he alth
insurance providers, retail clothing manufactures, gas
companies, airlines, and government agencies.

Superior functionality backed by decades of experience
- CACI's Restore 2000.

Worldwide Headquarters
1100 North Glebe Rd.
Arlington, VA 22201
http://www.caci.com
e-mail:npeters@hq.caci.com

DMR Consulting Group Inc.

DMR Consulting Group Inc.(formerly DMR TRECOM), an
Amdahl company, is a global consulting organization of
nearly 8,000 employees providing a comprehensive range
of information technology services.

Our Year 2000 Practice comprises a comprehensive
offering of consulting, assessment, remediation,
testing, and implementation services utilizing a formal
methodology (APM/2000), best-in-class software tools,
and six global conversion centers.  We have mul
ti-disciplinary experience in most mainframe,
mid-range, and client-server/desktop environments.

APM/2000 includes:

· Program Management

· Enterprise-Wide Assessment

· Impact Analysis

· Conversion Delivery

· Testing and Implementation

Year 2000 Risk Management Consulting Services include:
Program Review, Stakeholder Readiness Assessment, Risk
Management and Vendor Compliance Research.

Contact:
Stephen Frycki
Managing Director, Year 2000 Services - US
Phone:          201-200-3923
Fax:            201-200-9046
Email:          fryckis@dmr.com
Websites:       http://www.dmr.com

IBS Conversions, Inc.

IBS Conversions, Inc., founded in 1982, is the first
service organization to receive ITAA*2000
Certification.  IBS is a recognized leader in automated
conversion/migration software and consulting having
translated millions of lines of code for companies
worldwide.

IBS/Solution 2000

IBS/Solution 2000TM is a full suite of Year 2000
services and products:

Full project Analysis, Pilot Project and Repair,
staffing and management/methodology

Scan/Repair Conversion Factories for Mainframe and
AS/400 environments

Project Methodology

Qwik-Sizer Analysis

Licensing Scan/Repair Tools for AS/400 Y2K Projects

License Conversion Factories/Tools to other Consulting
Firms

http://www.ibs2000.com

SOFTWORKS, Inc.

HOT DATE 2000/SIMULATE

Preparing for the new millennium isn't easy, especially
in the data center.  Ensuring an accurate conversion
could be a daunting task.  That's why SOFTWORKS has
created HotDate 2000/SIMULATE.

HotDate 2000/SIMULATE is a comprehensive
identification, testing, and simulation utility created
to locate the programming changes needed to prepare for
the Year 2000.  Using a simulated Year 2000
environment, HotDate 2000/SIMULATE locates and tests
poten tial date problems the Year 2000 will cause to
your individual programs, applications, and entire
system.

HotDate 2000/SIMULATE is transparent to your
applications and supports all programming languages.

For more information about HotDate 2000/SIMULATE, call
SOFTWORKS at 800-727-4422.  Http://www.softworkscc.com

Y2Kplus, Inc.

Y2Kplus provides a portfolio of "best of class"
software products and outsourcing services that address
Year 2000 issues.  These offerings are available both
to IT Solution Providers and IT organizations.

Y2Kplus has offerings that address the following needs:

Our offerings include:

* Year 2000 risk assessment

* Mainframe inventory verification & code remediation
(COBOL, Natural, Assembler & PL/1)

* Midrange COBOL remediation (DEC, HP, UNISYS, Wang,
DG, NCR, Bull & Tandem)

* AS/400 remediation (RPG & COBOL)

* Networked PC Year 2000 Analysis tools

Applications: Access, Excel, Foxpro, Lotus 1-2-3

Languages: Basic, Visual Basic, C, C++, dBase, Clipper,
Paradox

PC Hardware, BIOS & Operating Systems

* Testing:

Tools: Data Commander for future date testing, TCS
(Test Control System),

Services: Test management & execution, Facilitated Test
Planning, Test strategy.

For more information, please send email to
info@y2kplus.com, visit our web site at www.y2kplus.com
or call Dave Ehlke at 781-863-8111.

Calendar http://www.itaa.org/y2kcal.htm

ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook is published every Friday to
help all organizations deal more effectively with the
Year 2000 software conversion.  If you would like to
receive this free publication, please sign up on the
web at https://www.itaa.org/transact/2kout looksub.htm.

Copyright ITAA 1998.  All rights reserved.  The
Information Technology Association of America, 1616 N.
Fort Myer Drive, Suite 1300, Arlington, VA 22209.
Internet: http:\\www.itaa.org