ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook September 25, 1998 Volume 3, No. 35 Published by the Information Technology Association of America, Arlington, VA Bob Cohen, Editor bcohen@itaa.org Read in over 70 countries around the world ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook is published every Friday to help all organizations deal more effectively with the Year 2000 software conversion. To create a subscription to this free publication, please visit ITAA on the web at https://www.itaa.org/transact/2ko utlooksub.htm. To cancel an existing subscription, visit https://www.itaa.org/transact/2kremove.htm. ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook is sponsored in part by CACI International Inc., DMR Consulting Group Inc., and Y2Kplus China's Y2K Fortunes Mix Many Ingredients Large private sector companies are generally considered to lead governments in the race to Y2K compliance. But what happens in the country where the state owns most large companies? And what happens if that country happens to be one of the world's faste st growing economies? As well as its most populace? How will the Year 2000 impact the People's Republic of China? The Y2K problem in China is not so much in the proliferation of technology but rather in its diversity. This country of 1.2 billion people has about 10 million computers (the number of computers is growing 50 percent annually). These devices are concent rated in the large cities, making the situation somewhat more manageable. China has, however, imported its installed base of computers from many different manufacturers, including IBM, Unisys, Fujitsu, Hitachi, Toshiba, Hewlett Packard, NEC, Digital, and others. An analogous situation exists for industrial machines and other intelligent devices. Most of this equipment has been imported from the U.S., Japan, Switzerland, Belgium, France, Eastern Europe and elsewhere. Little of this hardware--and its embedded sys tems date impediments--has originated in China. That leaves the country looking to its trading partners for help in making the necessary repairs. But the energy level behind that search, as well as the pace of repairs inside the country, is suspect; in part, because the problem itself pales in comparison with the realities of everyday life for most Chinese citizens. In fact, China may be better pr epared than most countries to ride a Y2K whirlwind, if it develops. The vast majority of Chinese, living in the countryside, do not have access to a telephone, flush toilets or electric lights. They already know what it is like to do without these conve niences--in fact, that is all they know. Chinese officials may be using this national "have-not-ism" as a hedge against turn-of-the-century turmoil. Still, with 300 million people living in big cities, one might consider that sufficient reason to get on with it. But a country that counts time in dynasties is inherently off-balance in the warp speed timeline of the Year 2000. Even the order from the top came down slowly. Last year, Vice Premier Zhou Jia Hua notified government agencies about the Y2K problem and ordered them not to purchase non-compliant products. This May, Vice Premier Wu Bang Guo assembled a group of agency officials from across g overnment to discuss the situation. At the same time, the Commission of Economy and Trade notified agencies that they should have a contingency plan in place by November and be finished with the conversion in March 1999. If wishes were horses, the entire planet would be riding high on the Y2K remediation bandwagon. But arm waving yields little elbow grease, and China is no exception. Few, if any, of the government's 20 plus agencies have completed Y2K assessments. An d even the method of assessment work completed to date is arguably superficial by Western standards. Meanwhile, the Commission of Economy and Trade alone controls 512 state-owned enterprises. Each enterprise has been ordered to take responsibility for i ts own repairs. Then there's the question of who will do the work? China has on the order of 300,000 software engineers. Chinese software engineers earn 10 to 20 percent of their counterparts in the U.S., Japan or Singapore. That difference is enough to put sand in the shoes of the most ardent patriot. Last month, IBM completed a training program which "graduated" a class of 50 Y2K programmers. One small step along a very long road to the country's Y2K wellness. Culture and politics also play a role. In the West, laggardly governments are roundly criticized for any sign of a slow response to the Y2K situation. In China, the government is not criticized. In the West, government officials think in terms of "face time" and, in moments of absolute despair, "facing the music." In China, officials fear losing face. In Y2K parlance, "losing face" is apt to mean calling black white and nascent Y2K projects o n schedule for near term completion. And then there's the little matter of having the money to make repairs. Flooding of the Yangzi, Nenjaing and Songhuajiang rivers this summer has brought chaos to the lives of millions of Chinese citizens and cost the government billions of Yuan. Dealing with an actual crisis like the Yangzi flood could make the more theoretical threats posed by the Year 2000 seem like a walk in Beijing's Tientan Park. Meanwhile, China's State Council issued an edict this month calling on regions and government departments to meet their repair schedules. "Senior officials of government departments and units that fail to solve the bug promptly and create huge losses and serious consequences will be investigated," it stated. US/Japan Agree to Y2K Cooperation Pact The U.S. and Japanese governments issued a Y2K Cooperation Statement this week and Y2K "Czar" John Koskinen is heading to Japan tomorrow to confer with his Japanese counterparts. The statement expresses support for multilateral organizations involved wit h the century date issue and pledges to create a bilateral exchange on Y2K methods and lessons learned. "Experts in both countries will benefit from open dialogue and technological exchanges in areas such as finance, energy, telecommunications, transportation and health care. As the deadline quickly approaches, we will seek more cooperation between specifi c industries, on interactive operational testing, and on contingency planning," the statement notes. The countries also pledge to promote Y2K awareness in developing countries and assure that development assistance programs in other countries don't hit t he Y2K wall. The statement also announces plans to conduct a high-level bilateral meeting in Tokyo September 28 and 29 on the issue. NRC Fires Up Y2K Audits The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) announced this week it will audit Y2K compliance at 12 nuclear power plants to predict how the industry will be impacted by the date change generally. The NRC says that safety operations at the plants are not thoug ht to be at risk, but problems could occur in security computers, control room display systems, control systems, radiation monitoring devices and other plant resources. Plants online to receive the NRC audit are Brunswick (NC), Hope Creek (NJ), Davis Bes se (OH), Wolf Creek (KA), Watts Bar (TN), Limerick (PA), Waterford (LA), North Anna (VA), Braidwood (IL) and WNP-2 (WA). Audits have already taken place at Monticello (MN) and Seabrook (NH). The NRC selected these plants based on vendor plant design, a ge of facility and computer systems utilization. Last January, the NRC notified nuclear utilities that they must keep the agency informed of their Y2K status. Licensees must also confirm the Y2K readiness of their facilities to the government by July 1 of next year. Agencies Create Medical Equipment Compliance Database Two government agencies announced this week they will create an online database of biomedical equipment Y2K status information. The Departments of Veterans Affairs (VA) and Health and Human Services (HHS) say the data base will keep health care providers and their patients informed with timely and easily obtainable information. Developed under an interagency agreement, the Federal Y2K Biomedical Clearinghouse will be operated on the Web by the Food and Drug Administration at http://www.fda.gov/cdrh/yr20 00/year2000. The National Patient Safety Partnership called for creation of the clearinghouse last July. The FDA has operated a biomedical equipment database since last March; approximately 2,400 of 13,000 manufacturers have contributed information. A t a hearing this week conducted by the House Veterans' Affairs Committee subcommittee on oversight and investigations, the Government Accounting Office released its own report on the medical device issue. That report is available at http://www.gao.gov/ne w.items/ai98240.pdf. Also this week, Sen. Christopher Dodd (D-CT) created a bit of a biomedical equipment database of his own. Dodd submitted a list of medical device manufacturers who have not complied with HHS information requests for publication in the Congressional Recor d. Energy Industry Offers Optimistic Assessments A recent energy industry poll suggests oil and gas companies are drilling down hard on the Y2K issue. The American Petroleum Institute and Natural Gas Council surveyed over 800 companies and found three out of four respondents indicating they will be don e by June 1999. Nineteen percent of those polled are testing remediated systems, while thirty-three percent are now in fix-it mode. Only 14 percent are in the planning phase of the effort. Earlier, the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) issued a report indicating most members are on track for completion. NERC is an organization of ten regional electric councils. NERC indicates that Y2K may be less of a jolt to the North Am erican power system than previously feared, with fewer problems to solve and the fixes themselves easier to make. Based on discussions with Y2K practitioners now making the necessary repairs, the report says Y2K "…may have less impact on electrical syste ms than first thought. Electrical systems consists mainly of wires and metal devices. Most equipment is electromechanical, meaning there is less dependence on digital controls." NERC says very few date interpretation problems affect the ability to operate electric systems. The report is available at ftp://ftp.nerc.com/pub/sys/all_updl/docs/y2k/y2kreport-doe.pdf Feds Set Y2K Awareness Week The Small Business Administration (SBA), U.S. Departments of Agriculture and Commerce and the President's Y2K Council will conduct a Year 2000 Awarenesss Week, October 19-23, 1998. With a special focus on outreach to small and mid-sized enterprises (SMEs ), the week will feature speeches and press interviews with cabinet secretaries as well as other activities to highlight Y2K preparedness. Plans call for the active involvement of the SBA field offices, the Commerce Department's Manufacturing Extension S ervice, and Agriculture's Cooperative Extension Service. "I am delighted that Uncle Sam has responded to ITAA's call for a federal Y2K awareness campaign. When Washington demonstrates that it is serious about the Year 2000 situation, small businesses will get serious about it too," said ITAA President Harris M iller. As part of the week, the event organizers are looking for Y2K success stories within the ranks of SMEs. Small companies with big stories to tell about their Y2K achievements are encouraged to contact Janet Abrams at the President's Y2K Council via email at janet_b._abrams@who.eop.gov. Business to Business Zitel Corporation, Fremont, CA, has been awarded a Y2K contract by Renaissance Worldwide Inc. Mercury Interactive Corp., Sunnyvale, CA, has entered into a partnering agreement with Oracle Corp. Under this agreement, Oracle will use Mercury Interactive's TestSuite 2000 to provide regression and testing services for Oracle customers. System Resources Corporation, Burlington, MA, has won a Y2K contract with Southcoast Health System. Information Analysis Inc., Fairfax, VA, has been awarded a Y2K contract by Arlington County, Virginia ITAA Y2K Information Center Solution Providers Directory http://www.itaa.org/script/2000vend.cfm ITAA*2000 Certification Program http://www.itaa.org/2000cert.htm Outlook Archive http://www.itaa.org/script/get2klet.cfm Legislative and Litigation Table http://www.itaa.org/Y2Klaw.htm Calendar http://www.itaa.org/y2kcal.htm Vendor/User Status Questionnaires http://www.itaa.org/questmain1.htm Copyright ITAA 1998. All rights reserved. The Information Technology Association of America, 1616 N. Fort Myer Drive, Suite 1300, Arlington, VA 22209. Internet: http:\\www.itaa.org