ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook
January 29, 1999                       Volume 4, No. 4

Published by the Information Technology Association of
America, Arlington, VA

Bob Cohen, Editor bcohen@itaa.org

Read in over 80 countries around the world

ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook is published every Friday to
help all organizations deal more effectively with the
Year 2000 software conversion.  To create a
subscription to this free publication, please visit
ITAA on the web at https://www.itaa.org/transact/2ko
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visit https://www.itaa.org/transact/2kremove.htm.


ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook is sponsored in part by CACI
International Inc., DMR Consulting Group Inc., and
Y2Kplus.


Survey Spotlights Y2K Reporting

Year 2000 has gone primetime.  A survey released today
by the Media Studies Center finds that 53 percent of
Americans agree that the Y2K problem is one of the most
important problems facing the country-that's one
percentage point more than have heard abou t the recent
U.S. military action against Iraq.  Although 55 percent
of those polled cannot describe the date glitch in
general terms, two-thirds call news media coverage of
the issue as it affects medical establishments and 911
emergency services "very im portant."  Fifty six
percent say the same for Y2K reporting on the military,
electric companies and banks.

Conducted by the Center for Survey Research and
Analysis at the University of Connecticut, the survey
polled the opinions of 1,002 American adults and has an
error margin of plus or minus three percent.

The survey is apt to bug electronic newsletter writers
and others using keyboards rather than cameras to tell
their Y2K stories.  Fifty-one percent of those polled
say they get their Year 2000 information from
television, as opposed to 17 percent from new spapers,
and seven percent from both radio and magazines.  A
mere five percent they receive this information over
the Internet.

However they get it, Americans still seem to feel
relatively confident that Y2K will pass more with a
whimper than a bang.  Thirty four percent expect the
situation to cause major problems around the world,
although just one in eight of those polled antic ipates
problems personally.  Seventy percent call actions like
stockpiling food and withdrawing money an overreaction;
one in three says he or she will seriously consider
withdrawing money from banks or other investments.

Other date defensive strategies also appear to fly
below the radar of most Americans.  Even fixing their
home computer may be a bridge too far.  Forty two
percent said they are either not "very seriously" or
not "seriously at all" considering such prepar ations;
36 percent say they are either somewhat or very serious
about making computer repairs.  Only 29 percent appear
interested in helping their communities get organized.

The full survey is available at
http://www.freedomforum.org/technology/1999/1/28y2ksurvey.asp.

Companies Team Up to Quell Supply Chain Concerns

Several leading companies have joined together to
squeeze the Y2K kinks out of their respective supply
chains.  Although the name of this group may not fit
easily on a business card, the High Tech Consortium
Year 200 and Beyond has 43 members, including h
ousehold names like Cisco, Dell, Hewlett-Packard, Sun,
IBM, Intel, and Motorola.  Accustomed to fierce
competition, these firms share the view that suppliers
unprepared for the Year 2000 represent a common
vulnerability.

Solectron Corporate Vice President Guy Rabbat heads the
consortium.  Rabbat recently presided over a meeting of
the group, called together to select a data base
contractor.  The idea is for consortium members to pool
the names of their suppliers, along wi th a Y2K
readiness rating of each.  While preserving the
confidentiality of each firm's submission, the database
will allow members to determine which suppliers are
used in common and how others have assessed the Y2K
prospects of these companies.

A new approach to supply chain management probably
can't hurt.  Rabbat says the readiness query letters
that companies mail back and forth to each other have
become meaningless.  At the same time, he says, the
financial community has become highly concern ed about
the supply chain and business continuity aspects of
Year 2000.  Noting how quickly a one percent deviation
in company performance is picked up by market analysts,
Rabbat says a similar one percent disturbance in the
supply chain may launch big ri pples in the
marketplace.

Beyond a torrent of unanswered mail, supply chain
assessment represents its own problems for firms going
it alone.  "Companies do not have infinite dollars to
perform on-site audits," Rabbat says.  Even knowing
whom to audit can be tricky.  Companies and divisions
within companies have multiple layers of supply chain
interdependency.  Add the simultaneous need of all
customers to have this information and it becomes a
recipe almost guaranteed to produce more heat than
light.

That explains the consortium members' interest in a
more collective approach.  Using a standard "green,
yellow, red" rating scale, the database will expose
what other companies think of the Y2K readiness of
common suppliers.  To the harried purchasing ma nager
of a fast moving IT company, having easy access to that
information could be worth its weight in PROMs.  Part
of the program thinking is to give consortium members
adequate time to realign supply chains gradually.
Another part is to avoid the supp ly dislocations that
could occur as the result of an abrupt, en masse
movement to new suppliers.  And a third part is about
helping Y2K wayward suppliers to reform, providing
training and education.

Rabbat says the companies will seek to leverage each
other not only in terms of the supply chain data base
but also by building best practices and an assessment
standard.  Membership to the group is open, although
Rabbat says data base participants will p ay a higher
fee and will be limited to between 50 and 100
companies.  A second tier membership will give
companies access to the best practices and assessment
standard.

The approach makes so much sense Rabbat says he is
surprised that other industry groups are not doing it
too.  But he credits an unlikely source for making the
program possible: the federal government.  He calls the
Year 2000 Information Sharing and Disc losure Act
passed in last year's Congress "essential" to the
formation of his group.  "Without the act," Rabbat
says, "there would be no way to bring competitors
together to talk…"

As the group met in the Silicon Valley last week, talk
itself did not seem to be in short supply.  Action may
follow soon.  The consortium is on a fast track.  A
database pilot already exists, as do a supplier
assessment standard and database rules.  Rab bat hopes
to see the project go live in the next two weeks.

World Bank Y2K Study Finds World of Risk

While much of the media attention and public concern
about the Y2K problem has focused on Western countries,
many developing countries are even more unprepared for
the millennium, and few have taken the remedial actions
needed to protect their computer sy stems, according to
a recent World Bank assessment.  Countries in
sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, Latin America and former
Soviet Union are likely to be most affected, the study
said.

The problem may be being overlooked because many assume
developing countries are less dependent on computers in
everyday life.  But, the majority of developing
countries, even the poorest, have computerized
essential services such as power generation, tel
ecommunications, and food distribution.

James Bond, Director of the World Bank's Energy, Mining
& Telecommunications Department and coordinator of Y2K
compliance in the Bank's current loan portfolio, says
that in a recent Bank survey of Y2K preparedness in 139
developing countries, only 54 had initiated national
Y2K policies; just 21 were taking concrete remedial
steps to safeguard their computing systems; and 33
reported high-to-medium awareness of the problem but
were not currently taking action.  Of course, the mere
existence of a national Y 2K action plan should not be
taken to imply that countries will be fully Y2K
compliant by the end of 1999.

Given that few developing countries have so far adopted
national Y2K compliance plans, the World Bank
recommends that governments without remedial plans
should act quickly.  World Bank Group President James
D. Wolfensohn has written to a number of governm ent
leaders in Africa, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, and
other regions, urging them to make contingency plans
for dealing with potential Y2K-related problems, and to
appoint high-level government Y2K czars to deal with
the issue.

In the put-your-money-where-your-study-is department,
the World Bank has now approved two loans for specific
Y2K preparations, and others are being prepared.  A $30
million loan was approved for Argentina on December 17,
1998; followed by a $29 million loan to Sri Lanka last
week; a substantial Y2K loan of $100 million for
Malaysia is being prepared for review in March; and Y2K
compliance components have been added to loans
currently being processed for Turkey and Ukraine.

Badger State Lawmakers Bugged by Liability Issue

The Wisconsin General Assembly approved a law Tuesday
limiting the liability of businesses and state and
local governments saddled with fixing Y2K-related
problems.  Under the bill, state and local governments
could not be sued if they proved they were working to
fix Y2K problems beforehand, or working to fix glitches
after something went wrong.  Also, firms could not be
sued for giving bad information about fixing th e Y2K
problem unless it was proved that they knowingly did
something wrong.  A separate provision would allow
state officials to fine business owners $100 a day for
not providing information indicating their preparedness
for the problem.

Limiting Y2K-related lawsuits against companies
offering information on the problem is necessary
because the businesses will not be as forthcoming with
information if there is the threat of being sued, said
James Buchen, an advocate for Wisconsin Manufact urers
& Commerce, the state's largest business group.  Buchen
added that there are many unknowns with Y2K that can' t
be foreseen by businesses giving advice or selling
products designed to fix the problem.

But critics said the proposal could block all
Y2K-related suits and allow companies to avoid fixing
the problem because they would not be held as
accountable.  The Assembly rejected amendments offered
by Rep.  Marlin Schneider, among which was a proposal r
equiring the retailers and makers of electronics such
as computers to accurately show how ready their
products are against the Y2K problem or face a penalty.

The Wisconsin Senate will consider the measure later in
the legislative session.

Closer to Home

Y2K Mediation Seminar Prepares Go-Betweens for Disputes

On Thursday, March 25, a "Mediating Year 2000 Disputes"
seminar will run at the Hyatt Regency Reston Town
Center in Reston, VA.  The Information Technology
Association of America (ITAA), Technology Mediation
Services, J.A.M.S/Endispute, AH&T Technology Br okers
and the Saint Paul Companies are sponsoring the forum,
designed to provide background for Y2K business
disputes.  Attendees will include trained and
experienced mediators, corporate counsel, senior
executives with Y2K responsibilities and those resp
onsible for handling settlements.

Designed to provide an overview of technical, legal,
insurance and policy issues necessary to put the Y2K
problem and disputes into perspective, the seminar
focuses on the business goals involved in mediation
strategy.  The conference will highlight diff erences
between Y2K disputes and other business disputes and is
designed to help companies better prepare for the
"inevitable" Y2K disagreements.  Seminar fees are $275
before March 12 and $325 after.  Learn more at
http://www.technologymediation.com/Y2 K_seminar.htm

Business to Business

Computer Sciences Corp., Falls Church, VA, has been
awarded a four-year $4.8 million contract by the U.S.
Coast Guard.  They have also won a contract worth up to
$21 million to provide enhancements, upgrades and
support for the Stock Control & Distributio n System at
Wright-Patterson Air Force Base.

Computer Associates International, Islandia, NY, has
entered into a partnership agreement with Logitek
International.  Under this agreement, Logitek will
provide Y2K remediation, IV&V, and testing services to
their clients using the CA Discovery 2000 tool .

DMR Consulting Group, Inc., Lacombe, Alberta, has
signed a two-year outsourcing contract renewal with
Agriculture Financial Services Corporation.

Alydaar, Software Corp., Charlotte, NC, has won a Y2K
contract with ITT Cannon.

ITAA Y2K Information Center

Solution Providers Directory
http://www.itaa.org/script/2000vend.cfm

ITAA*2000 Certification Program
http://www.itaa.org/2000cert.htm

Outlook Archive
http://www.itaa.org/script/get2klet.cfm

Legislative and Litigation Table
http://www.itaa.org/Y2Klaw.htm

Calendar
http://www.itaa.org/y2kcal.htm

Vendor/User Status Questionnaires
http://www.itaa.org/questmain1.htm

Copyright ITAA 1999.  All rights reserved.  The
Information Technology Association of America, 1616 N.
Fort Myer Drive, Suite 1300, Arlington, VA 22209.
Internet: http:\\www.itaa.org