ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook
February 5, 1999                        Volume 4, No. 5

Published by the Information Technology Association of
America, Arlington, VA

Bob Cohen, Editor bcohen@itaa.org

Read in over 80 countries around the world

ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook is published every Friday to
help all organizations deal more effectively with the
Year 2000 software conversion.  To create a
subscription to this free publication, please visit
ITAA on the web at https://www.itaa.org/transact/2ko
utlooksub.htm.  To cancel an existing subscription,
visit https://www.itaa.org/transact/2kremove.htm.


ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook is sponsored in part by CACI
International Inc., DMR Consulting Group Inc., and
Y2Kplus.

Food for Thought on Capitol Hill

Lawmakers concerned that no news may be perceived as
bad news held a hearing today on the status of the
nation's food industry and encouraged food growers to
produce more information on the Year 2000.

"Y2K is an insidious digital pestilence that may
threaten aspects of our robust food production system,"
said Sen.  Chris Dodd (D-CT), Vice Chairman of the
Special Senate Committee on the Year 2000 Technology
Problem.  Dodd said the food industry has been largely
silent on the issue, contributing inadvertently to
public fears.  Calling information technology almost as
import to the food supply chain as photosynthesis, Dodd
said the Y2K bug could "needlessly gnaw away at
corporate competitiveness and consum er confidence."

Committee Chairman Bob Bennett (R-UT) said his is
committee staff "is flooded with calls asking, 'will
there be food on the shelves?'" Bennett said the food
industry must answer the question and provide realistic
readiness assessment information.

Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman did his best to
reassure the Committee that Y2K won't tip the nation's
food cart.  Glickman said the government agencies
charged with monitoring the situation for the federal
Y2K Council do not believe the Year 2000 prob lem "will
cause widespread, or severe, disruptions in the food
supply."  He predicted minor, localized effects.

Bennett and Glickman appeared to disagree on the
importance of computers to farm operations.  Bennett
cited a study showing that 80 percent of American
farmers use computers as "integral" to their business,
33 percent use the Internet and 75 percent own c
ellular phones.  Glickman said only 32 percent of
farmers use automated systems, mostly for
record-keeping, while only 2.5 percent have automation
in feeding, storage or milking systems, or use the
global positioning system in the production process.
Ove r half of farmers working to fix their systems have
spent $1000 or less, Glickman said.

The Agriculture Secretary said keeping bottled water,
canned food, candles and batteries is just a good sense
bad weather precaution but added that "needless and
frivolous stockpiling of supplies can create isolated
shortages."

International Players Set up Y2K Mission Control

The U.S. joined with the United Nations and World Bank
leaders today to announce the creation of an
International Y2K Cooperation Center.  The Center has
been established to facilitate greater information
sharing among countries and to promote and support
regional and sectoral efforts to address the Year 2000
problem.

U.S.  Y2K Council Chairman John Koskinen and National
Year 2000 Coordinators from 10 other countries will
serve on a steering committee to provide overall
guidance for the Center's activities.  Funding will
come from in kind donations from various countries and
the World Bank.  Bruce McConnell, formerly Chief of
Information Policy and Technology at the U.S.  Office
of Management and Budget, will serve as the Center's
Director.  The "virtual" center will function as a
"communications hub" to connect Y2K informa tion
officers worldwide to share practices, strategies,
solutions and contingency plans, said McConnell.

The Center idea grew out of a United Nations-organized
meeting Dec. 11, where more than 120 countries shared
their strategies, said Pakistani Ambassador Ahmad
Kamal, chair of the UN Economic and Social Council's
Informatics Working Group.  "Concerns about the Year
2000 problem don't stop at any country's border," said
Koskinen.

Travel Reservation Systems a Go on Y2K

Revelers looking to ring in the millennium in an exotic
locale, or the more traditional New Year's spots like
New York City and Las Vegas, can now book airline
flights.  Travel industry experts say the reservations
for January 1, 2000 are going off withou t a hitch, a
strong indication that Year 2000 remediation efforts
have been successful.  The computerized reservations
systems used by major airlines and many car rental and
other travel industry businesses display dates for sale
only 331 days in advance.  Thus, Thursday became the
first day to book travel for next January 1.

More than 100,000 travel agencies that book some 80
percent of all flights depend on systems operated by
just a handful of computer reservation system (CRS)
companies.  No major difficulties were reported
yesterday related to the possible inability of com
puter systems to recognize the year 2000.

"The CRS' have been saying all along that they would
have their systems in compliance, and it appears they
were right," American Society of Travel Agents
President and CEO Joe Galloway said in a statement
released today.

Airlines seem to be taking the success in stride.
Bookings began shortly after midnight Thursday morning,
with none reporting major problems.  Delta's
computerized reservation systems are performing
precisely as planned,'' said Charlie Feld, chief infor
mation officer for the Atlanta-based carrier.  Like
Delta, United and other airlines saw Thursday as the
real test.  "We really felt we were ready,'' said
spokeswoman Kristina Price, who estimated United has
spent $70 million on its Year 2000 Project.  "We think
this was the first major milestone.''

"It was a success across the board.  We have a Y2K
department that has been working on this issue for over
a year, and the entire program is going very well.
We're working with the airports and all the vendors
that the airlines work with," said Diana Cr onan,
spokesperson for the Air Transport Association.  "The
way things are going right now, we have full confidence
in the system," Cronan added.

Booking airline tickets, of course, is not the same as
actually taking off or landing at airports.  Because
the number of reservation systems is small, the focus
of Y2K attention can be very focused and enjoy enormous
economies of scale.

Airports lack this advantage.  As Gartner Group
executive Jim Cassell points out, airports operate with
many, complex information systems that the flying
public never sees.  These include everything from crew
scheduling to baggage handling.  So while Cass ell
calls the airline industry's success "fantastic," he
also notes that "if those reservation systems work, a
lot of [different] airlines get off the ground," he
said.  "I never worried about the airlines per se."  He
seems much less sanguine about the o peration of
airports themselves.

Meanwhile, the travel industry expects the period
around New Year's Eve and Jan. 1, 2000, to be busy,
with people heading to celebrations and other
gatherings.  Cruises are the most popular destination
choice, according to ASTA, and Galloway added that "B
ecause of the increased demand, consumers should be
aware that all of the major carriers have made all
classes of seats, including first-class and full-coach,
non-refundable and instant-purchase for travel between
December 16, 1999 and January 10, 2000, f or some
popular destinations."


Ports Seek to Steer Clear of Y2K Problems

With the Year 2000 deadline looming, the maritime
industry has more than cargo on its manifest.

Almost 95 percent of US export and import trade relies
on maritime shipping.  But with little data regarding
domestic and international Y2K efforts in the maritime
industry, the issue is whether this commerce will
remain on course come January 1, 2000.

Early next month, the maritime industry will respond to
a Coast Guard request for comments (RFC) on what
control measures may be necessary to minimize
Y2K-related disturbances on shipboard and at port
facilities.  "To counter this potential problem, Coast
Guard is considering using existing authority to
implement more restrictive control measures to ensure
port, vessel, facility and environmental safety," the
RFC notes.

Some of the questions the Coast Guard wants answered
include whether or not it should consider suspending
all port operations for some period of time.

That may be nothing short of draconian, but as Rear
Admiral G. N. Naccara points out, the Coast Guard is
keeping tabs on 80,000 annual visits to U.S. ports by
7,700 vessels sailing under foreign flags.  These ships
can be very techno-dependent, operating with minimal
crews.  Naccara says the Coast Guard is trying to hail
the attention of all shippers and port authorities
involved by conducting a March meeting in London of 14
international maritime trade organizations.

Shipboard systems are the focus of much Y2K attention,
with automation standing watch over everything from
propulsion, ballast and boilers to communications,
radar and steering.  Problems in navigating a shipping
canal or harbor could be disastrous to peo ple,
property and the environment.  But the Year 2000 bug is
also potentially lurking at portside in the systems and
equipment that drive efficient maritime authority
operations.

While everything from ships to cargo containers looks
big and somewhat awkward while resting in port, much
that is nimble and precise is taking place just below
the surface.  Transported by large containerships, the
timely and efficient delivery of goods d epends on
technology designed to expedite processing of goods
through ports, move international trade through
customs, and to track the point of origin as well as
the destination of containers and other cargo.  With
maritime profitability dictated by slim profit margins,
a delay of even a few hours in a port can translate
into substantial losses.

As Jeff Leong, a spokesman for the Harbor Department of
the City of Los Angeles states, "Time is critical to
shippers.  Any cargo sitting idle would be hurtful."

Chris Mowrey, Director of Planning and Technology for
the North Carolina State Ports Authority, says he
thinks the Coast Guard is trying to get the industry's
attention with its pointed list of questions.  Mowrey
chairs the information technology committe e of the
American Association of Port Authorities (AAPA) and
says his peers around the country have good awareness
on the issue and are moving to get the "large chunks"
under control.

Those large chunks could include central servers
providing core financial systems, cargo tracking,
maintenance and repairs, and parts tracking.  Other
pieces could include electronic data interchange
between ports and steamship lines or cargo interests,
electronic links to the U.S.  Customs Service or
service providers, desktop applications, warehousing
and facilities management, and the embedded systems
components of cargo handling equipment, including
cranes.

Enter the Year 2000 problem and the job of moving
40-foot long containers, often weighing in excess of a
ton.  Typically, once a vessel arrives in port, the
design of the tower crane at berth enables either a
container to be lifted onto a train or directl y onto a
truck chassis, and whisked off to the customer.  Even
though the process does not happen in the blink of an
eye, at speeds of one container per minute, the job
still requires precise movements coordinated and
finessed by computers.  And as with al l modern
applications, these systems have embedded chips that,
should they fail, could put a kink in crane operations.
On modern cranes, programmable logic controllers
control movements like hoisting, booming and gantry,
utilize "permissives" to safety- check crane motion,
and generate safety information.  Other on board
computers may be used to gather cargo data and generate
reports for stevedores and other harbor personnel.

The good news is that many US ports have a combination
of the older diesel-electric cranes that unlike newer
all-electric cranes are not susceptible to computer
failure.  High tech in these older models is pretty
much limited to an on/off switch.

However, these cranes are typically much slower and
therefore not capable of unloading containers at the
same pace as newer ones, therefore potentially delaying
a vessel by several hours, depending on the number of
containers.  Also encouraging is that m any US ports
have either already replaced or are in the process of
replacing systems in cranes that are not Year 2000
compliant.

As for the embedded systems of affected cargo handling
equipment, built mostly in the 1980s, "About all you
can do is be aware of what equipment you have,
inventory brands, and poke around to see if anyone
knows status information" says North Carolina's M
owrey.  "Dozens of trade organizations are looking at
their equipment and providing lists of what is or isn't
compatible over the Internet.  But anyone who says
they've tested these systems and can say for sure they
are compliant…I would be hard pressed t o believe."

At the same time, however, Mowrey seems confident that
date deficient cranes will still get the job done.
"Cranes will pick up cargo thinking its 1940 as well as
it would in 1999," he says.

Farther up the coast, the Maryland Department of
Transportation (MDOT) oversees the Maryland Port
Administration (MPA) and the Port of Baltimore and
reports that its Y2K efforts have been underway for the
better part of four years, according to Alisoun Mo ore,
the Chief Information Officer.  Although Moore calls
Year 2000 a "worry project," she says many of the Y2K
"what-if scenarios" are past their prime.  There's been
so much attention across the country to the issue that
scenarios which would have been i mportant two years
ago have been eliminated by system fixes, she says.
The MDOT official appears confident that her agency has
flushed any Y2K ballast from its systems.

Mowrey agrees that like any problem steaming into port,
the Y2K issue needs to be kept in perspective.  "Are we
going to quit moving containers because the air
conditioning in the Administration Building breaks?  I
doubt it."

Business to Business

Bellcore, Morristown, NJ, has unveiled a suite of Y2K
services covering program and risk assessment,
verification and testing, carrier management, and
contingency planning.

PLATINUM Technology, Oakbrook Terrace, IL, has
introduced PLATINUM TransCentury Office 2.0, an updated
version of their Y2K desktop solution.

Logix Solutions, Inc., a division of ATEC Group, Inc.,
Hauppauge, NY, has won nine Y2K contracts with both
government agencies and commercial organizations
located in California, New York, Colorado and Hawaii.

Alydaar Software Corporation, Charlotte, NC, has
acquired Data Systems Network Corporation, a network
integration company.

C2i Solutions, San Diego, CA, has been awarded a
contract by a major French insurance company to provide
Y2K consulting services.

ITAA Y2K Information Center

Solution Providers Directory
http://www.itaa.org/script/2000vend.cfm

ITAA*2000 Certification Program
http://www.itaa.org/2000cert.htm

Outlook Archive
http://www.itaa.org/script/get2klet.cfm

Legislative and Litigation Table
http://www.itaa.org/Y2Klaw.htm

Calendar
http://www.itaa.org/y2kcal.htm

Vendor/User Status Questionnaires
http://www.itaa.org/questmain1.htm


Copyright ITAA 1999.  All rights reserved.  The
Information Technology Association of America, 1616 N.
Fort Myer Drive, Suite 1300, Arlington, VA 22209.
Internet: http:\\www.itaa.org