ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook April 23, 1999 Volume 4, No. 15 Published by the Information Technology Association of America, Arlington, VA Bob Cohen, Editor bcohen@itaa.org Read in over 80 countries around the world ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook is published every Friday to help all organizations deal more effectively with the Year 2000 software conversion. To create a subscription to this free publication, please visit ITAA on the web at https://www.itaa.org/transact/2ko utlooksub.htm. To cancel an existing subscription, visit https://www.itaa.org/transact/2kremove.htm. ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook is sponsored in part by CACI International Inc., DMR Consulting Group Inc and Y2Kplus. In this Issue: · Government Y2K Report: Sun Will Come Up Tomorrow · Bill Seeks End-to-End Testing, Disclosure · BellSouth and AT&T Ring Up Successful Y2K Tests · Brits Dispel Big Bang Bug Theory · VA Helping Hospitals to Heal · ITAA Y2K Information Center · Sponsor Advertising Government Y2K Report: Sun Will Come Up Tomorrow Uncle Sam has seen the light, and it's the bright shining light at the end of the Year 2000 tunnel. In the second in a series of quarterly reports, a review issued this week by the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion finds that things really aren 't so bad date-wise. At least not in this country. Among the Council's notable conclusions, the federal government's mission critical systems will be ready to roll as the rollover arrives and major infrastructure pieces, like utilities and telecom, are not likely to poop out on the job either. Indeed, if there's any bitter delivered in all of this sweet, it's mostly offshore where the Council sees America's greatest risk. "Unfortunately," the report notes, "most countries appear to still be well behind the United States in Y2K readiness, and many have only recently organized national efforts to deal with the problem. It now appears that a number of countries will experience Y2K failures in key infrastructures such as electric power, telecommunications, and transportation. The risk of infrastructure failures is generally greater in developing countries, most of whom started to address the problem much later than developed nations; however, many developing countries already experience almost daily disruptions in infrastructure services. Such failures -- in developed or developing countries -- could affect not only Americans living abroad, but also travel and business relationships." Even if the rest of the world is unwilling to right wrong computer dates, this may not be an unmitigated disaster for the U.S. The report points out that the nation's largest trading partners, Canada and Mexico, are well along on their Y2K conversion programs too. With a few exceptions, the Council has nothing but good things to say about the status of virtually all U.S. industries. Or perhaps the industries have nothing but good things to say about themselves. Built on the self-assessments of over 80 industry groups and firms, the Council paints a very bright picture of national readiness, at least as far as major corporations are concerned. But small and mid-sized enterprises are a different story. In fact, a "big cop/small cop" routine runs throughout the report: On chemicals: "Progress is being made on the Y2K problem among larger companies in the chemical industry, but information about the efforts of small and medium-sized firms is lacking." On telecom: "Readiness in the communications sector, which includes wireline and wireless telecommunications, broadcast and cable, and satellite technology, is similar to the pattern found in other industry sectors: large companies have aggressive plans for dealing with the Y2K problem and are adhering to firm timetables for completing Y2K work, while less information is available about the status of small and medium-sized companies, making them of greater concern." On oil and gas: "The Council's Oil and Gas Working Group has been very effective in reaching the major c ompanies, from production, refining and processing, to transportation, and distribution of oil and natural gas. Complete information is lacking about the preparedness of small companies at the retail end of the market and thus! there is some concern about the status of their Y2K readiness." Still, there is plenty of good news on which to feast. For instance, the Council says America's food supply will not see disruptions. When shoppers do head to the store, having gas in the car tank should not be an issue either. Oil and gas problems, if any, will be minimal, according to the report. And store lights will still be burning when customers arrive; according to the Council, industry surveys make it "highly unlikely" that major outages will occur. Ditto the financial system. The Council ca lls the Y2K progress of this sector "excellent" and says widespread or prolonged disruptions are not expected. Not every industry receives a glowing review. The report expresses "cautious optimism" that the nation's water supply will be ready. Health care is also the target of mild criticism, with the report noting that "the actual number of systems that are now Y2K compliant is relatively low…" Airport repairs are proceeding slowly, while the Council finds the efforts of state, local and tribal governments to get ready "varies widely" with some willing to wait and see if systems fail. Some observers take issue with various facets of the report, including its upbeat tone. According to one government contractor, "We've gone way overboard soothing people and telling them everything is going to be fine. It's a happy face message." How so? This techno-grinch points to the distinction between mission critical and non-mission critical systems, particularly in the federal government realm: "We are talking about being 92 percent complete on mission critical systems, and the number of mission critical systems keeps getting whittled down. Regardless, we're talking 92 percent of between 10 and 20 percent of total government systems. If you have 40,000 systems, that's fewer than 4000 that have been fixed." Of course the federal government is not the only sector tailoring its Y2K talk to just mission critical systems. But pouring oil on trouble waters may come at a price: increased public complacency. "At the time when people should be putting on steam to be ready, we're saying it's not such a big deal. I'm annoyed at the 'Pollyanna' approach," this contractor said. Y2K Consultant William Ulrich is likewise looking for a more realistic public dialogue on the subject. Ulrich says the federal government is managing the situation from a very lofty vantage point indeed. "I don't think the federal government has a clue down below the 70,000-foot-level," he says. "They don't know whom to talk to or what questions to ask." Down in the trenches, he indicates, the thinking about company readiness is quite different. Ulrich has recently returned from a client engagement where the firm is back-filling with analog telephone switches for digital switching technology that may not be Y2K ready in time. Ulrich says the move will get this customer around telecom tie-ups, but the date issue also looms large for its mail handling equipment and external package delivery support. Getting by will mean working around-not the most efficient or effective mode in which to operate. "Assume massive productivity slowdowns," Ulrich says. The report's reliance on industry self-assessments also raises eyebrows. Next Millennium Consulting President Andrew Pegalis says reported completion percentages may be misleading because the last 10 or 20 percent of the Y2K project may be the most difficult to complete. But he adds that self-assessments are probably unavoidable too. He says external audits on this scale to verify the state of readiness are impractical, while private agendas and hype may further cloud the true state of affairs. So is the light up ahead the stuff of a shining national success or the headlamp on the Y2K Express? Ulrich claims that the bulk of companies are still behind the date curve. Testing is not as comprehensive as it should be, and contingency plans are either not complete or sketchy, he suggests. The bias towards painting a rosier-than-may-be-the-case portrait of readiness comes from the very real need of companies to hang on to customers while defending stock prices, Ulrich suggests. The consultant isn't predicting a train wreck, but he doesn't think Y2K will be like a three-day snow storm either. He says the cascading financial and productivity slowdown caused by the Year 2000 will be "more complicated than people want to think." Bill Seeks End-to-End Testing, Disclosure Legislation introduced last week by Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D-TN) would seek to force end-to-end testing of critical federal agency information systems. The bill would encourage state and local governments to participate and create a National Y2K Test Day on July 1. The bill would also require agencies to report Y2K-related problems, perhaps on August 16, which would be designated National Y2K Disclosure Day. BellSouth and AT&T Ring Up Successful Y2K Tests BellSouth and AT&T say Y2K testing of their respective network systems has been 100 percent successful. The telecom companies modeled the public switched network in a series of five test labs and verified the error free performance of wireline local and long distance, wireless, 911, international, toll free, operator assisted and credit card calling. The testing is said to provide a high degree of confidence that AT&T interconnections with other regional Bell operating companies will also ring true in t he new year. Brits Dispel Big Bang Bug Theory A new report by the UK's Taskforce 2000 says 60 percent of Y2K failures will occur prior to year end and that 5 to 10 percent of errors will be triggered at the year rollover itself. Ian Hugo, associate director of the taskforce, calls the focus of attention on January 1, 2000 "simplistic and unrealistic." The report, which is available at http://www.taskforce2000.co.uk , introduces the notion of the "drag" effect-the time between errors happening and their impact being noticed. The taskforce predicts problems for companies stretching out well into the Year 2000. VA Helping Hospitals to Heal The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) is helping hospitals around the country treat their lack of a Y2K contingency plan. The department has published a "patient focused" contingency planning document on its website at www.va.gov/year2000. The nine-step regime includes guidance on how to tilt with medical devices, assess external threats, conduct emergency preparedness training and exercises and check out utility systems. ITAA Y2K Information Center Solution Providers Directory http://www.itaa.org/script/2000vend.cfm ITAA*2000 Certification Program http://www.itaa.org/2000cert.htm Outlook Archive http://www.itaa.org/script/get2klet.cfm Legislative and Litigation Table http://www.itaa.org/year2000/legis.htm Calendar http://www.itaa.org/y2kcal.htm Vendor/User Status Questionnaires http://www.itaa.org/questmain1.htm Alternate Dispute Resolution (ADR) http://www.itaa.org/year2000/adr.htm Statement of Intention to Use ADR http://www.itaa.org/year2000/soi.htm, Y2K Mediators Seminar http://www.technologymediation.com/Y2K_seminar.htm Copyright ITAA 1999. All rights reserved. The Information Technology Association of America, 1616 N. Fort Myer Drive, Suite 1300