ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook May 28, 1999 Volume 4, No. 20 Published by the Information Technology Association of America, Arlington, VA Bob Cohen, Editor bcohen@itaa.org Read in over 80 countries around the world ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook is published every Friday to help all organizations deal more effectively with the Year 2000 software conversion. To create a subscription to this free publication, please visit ITAA on the web at https://www.itaa.org/transact/2ko utlooksub.htm. To cancel an existing subscription, visit https://www.itaa.org/transact/2kremove.htm. ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook is sponsored in part by CACI International Inc., DMR Consulting Group Inc and Y2Kplus. In this Issue: · Regional Y2K Coordinators Gather · Jamaica Forecasts Sunny Skies for Year End Visitors · HCFA Declares Itself Date Cured · Fed Poses Lending Program · Group Issues Warning on Five UK Sectors · Bug Gums Works for Tar Heel Motorists Regional Y2K Coordinators Gather Y2K coordinators and representatives from 16 Latin American and Caribbean countries gathered in Kingston, Jamaica this week to share views on their respective Year 2000 preparations, with special focus on how the situation will impact the financial, touri sm, social security sectors. This was the second regional meeting of this group. Dr. Carlos Jarque, President of Mexico's Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, Geografia e Informatica (INEGI), co-chaired the day-long session. Jarque indicated that the ability of financial sectors to deal with the Year 2000 may determine whether countrie s enjoy capital flows or capital flight. In the tourism realm, he said that the Y2K-related anxiety visitors encounter may contaminate other sectors. Disruptions to social services, he suggested, could have a dramatic impact on families. Phillip Paulwell, Minister of Commerce and Technology, also addressed the session and called for coordinated international action, citing the interdependence of countries in a global economy. He appealed to the more advanced nations to help less advanced nations. The Year 2000 situation, he said, is unprecedented. He indicated that countries must anticipate failures to avoid panic behavior. A presentation about the Mexican financial sector found the Banco de Mexico 100 percent done with its Y2K conversion and internal testing activities. Financial service companies in Mexico were also reported 100 percent complete. Others enjoying a high d egree of completion were Mexico stock broker-dealers (99 percent), the retirement savings system (98 percent) and commercial banks (97 percent). The Mexican financial sector has also launched industry-based process testing in such areas as check clearing , credit cards, tax collection, derivatives, security lending and related areas. This testing is due for completion at the end of next month. Countries participating in the conference included Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Belize, Cost Rica, Cuba, El Salvador, Grenada, Guatemala, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Dominican Republic, St. Vincent & Grenadines, St. Lucia and the United States. Jamaica Forecasts Sunny Skies for Year End Visitors Planning to spend New Year's Eve hunkered down on some Caribbean island? Plenty of people are. In Jamaica, for instance, many of the country's top flight properties are sold out for the Millennium week. But as time grows short to fix systems, the perce ption of possible computer-generated disruptions could cloud this otherwise sunny picture. The problem is as much economic as technical. Outside Jamaica's luxurious "all-inclusive" resorts, times are tough. Unemployment stands at over 15 percent. Economic reforms have so far failed to jump-start the economy, which fell in 1998 for the third year in a row, down .7 percent. In this environment, even short-term disruptions can have lasting effects. For instance, last month, street demonstrations and blockades triggered by a rise in gasoline prices caused a "significant" hit to future visitor bookings, according to one official. With 45 cents of every dollar deriving from the tourism industry, Jamaica has a major stake in assuring that the century rolls by as smoothly as a West Indies breeze. Not surprising then that Phillip Paulwell, Minister of Commerce and Technology, said this week that the nation will soon launch a major Y2K awareness week, promising to "name names" of those entities not making adequate date repair progress. "We will be calling names of companies that are in compliance and not in compliance," Paulwell said. Paulwell added the government must be responsible not only for fixing systems under its direct control, but also for generating national awareness, buildi ng an appropriate policy framework, and generating contingency plans. Despite the new get tough attitude, Jamaican government officials-no doubt walking a difficult economic tightrope--forecast few clouds in the tourism forecast, at least as far as Y2K computer glitch is concerned. This despite the fact that no specific go vernment official or agency appears to have the Y2K readiness of this critical sector as a primary mission. For instance, the Office of the Prime Minister has a year 2000 program, but it remains focused on the internal system readiness of government age ncies in the finance, public utilities, national security, health and transportation sectors. Dinsdale Case, Deputy Director of the Jamaican Tourism Board sees no Y2K disruptions looming, and he is plagued by no uncertainties over the issue. All sectors of the Jamaican tourism industry, he says, are preparing themselves to meet the Year 2000. C ase has sent letters to banks, utilities and other critical suppliers to gain assurances. He admits, however, that the Board's role is limited to tourism promotion and the responsibility of overseeing industry-wide readiness lies elsewhere. But where? Yvonne Crooks is the information systems manager at the Jamaica Tourism Product Development Company (JTPDCo), and she is trying to coordinate the industry's compliance efforts. "People booking trips around the world must know they can come to Jamaica," s he says. While acknowledging a certain amount of concern over the issue, Crooks thinks that the country is where it should be in readiness terms. She calls the island a leader among Caribbean nations in staying abreast of technology. At least one private sector entrepreneur challenges such claims. This person claims that national awareness is no where near where it should be and that, with few exceptions, senior managers in both the public and private sectors remain blind to the risk s posed. Perhaps so. But don't try to tell that to air transportation authorities. Clearly, Kingston and Montego Bay are aided in Y2K terms to the extent that they are not tech-reliant metro areas like Chicago and Miami. Especially in airport operation terms. Air Jamaica serves as the International Air Transport Association's lead airline for assessing Y2K readiness of the island's principal airports. IATA is building a database on the Y2K status of the world's airports. Molly Rhone, who runs the Air Jamaica Y2K program, says the Norman Manley Airport benefits in this situation by not having the same level of automation as mega airports. "We do not use a computer to handle the baggage conveyor belt for a particular fligh t. We just push a button. We don't use a computer to assign [arrival] gates. Gates are assigned manually. It's a much better situation." Even though the Kingston airport is relatively small and less reliant on computers, Rhone says its many stakeholders still meet on a monthly basis to review Y2K progress. She says Air Jamaica itself has worked with the Airport Authority to check every pi ece of equipment at the facility, from runway lights to fire trucks. Ditto for the airport's air traffic control system, likewise aided by a lack of automation. "I would deduce nothing to be alarmed at," she says. All airport suppliers, including power, water, telephone, fuel vendors and others meet in one room to "keep a watchful eye on each other," Rhone notes. As far as Air Jamaica itself is concerned, the airline that carries about half of all tourist traffic to the island is about 75 percent done with its Y2K repairs, Rhone says. The airline's reservation system has started booking Year 2000 seat reservation s; indeed, Rhone reports "heavy bookings" for January 1-3, 2000. Some of Air Jamaica's mission critical systems, such as maintenance and engineering and revenue accounting, have been swapped out with replacement systems. Still other systems for departur e control are provided to the airline by British Air. One top tourism industry executive feels comfortable about the progress being made by the airport. James Samuels, President of the Jamaican Hotel and Tourism Association, says he has been assured that the airport and connected services will be ready by t he end of the year. He also says that major hotel chains are likewise moving towards compliance, aided by in-house engineering departments to perform much of the embedded system trouble shooting. Samuels is more concerned about the island's small hotels , representing 60 percent of all such properties in Jamaica. As managing director of the Terra Nova Hotel, Samuels operates a 35-room sleeping room facility in Kingston. He is pushing Y2K compliance, not only for the Terra Nova but for other members of his association. Samuels says, however, "How many people are going to go through the detailed checking?" Samuels also sees the potential for problems in Jamaica if Y2K slows commerce in shipping. He says a log jam at the busy Christmas season could be problematic, not only for Jamaica but all Caribbean ports. While not desirable, problems with cruise lines , representing more than one port call every day, would be less traumatic to the tourism industry, Samuels indicates. These visitors are "day trippers" and contribute far less to the economy than customers at the island's "all-inclusives" and other venues . Still, the hotel executive clearly sees the relationship between the perception of trouble-Y2K or otherwise-- and the island's underlying economic realities. He says the civil unrest in April cost Jamaica "way beyond what was imagined" and served as a "w ake up call for both the Jamaican government and its people." "We are an island," he says, "but not an island by ourselves." The demonstrations, he suggests, caught the world's attention and the perception hurt its tourism business. But others suggest that the Year 2000 could take its toll more directly. "Suppose," says the private sector entrepreneur, "a hotel has 60 rooms but because of a Y2K problem double books them and 120 people show up. The hotel would not only lose that gro up's future business but friends would tell friends and you would have a ripple effect too." For now, one can hope that the optimism of a Dinsdale Case is indeed well founded. Because at the end of the day, in places like Kingston, Jamaica, it may be the tourism industry's foot soldiers--waiters, busboys and maids--who come to best understand th e Millennium bug's bite. HCFA Declares Itself Date Cured The Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA) says it's systems are now cured of Y2K ills. Speaking to an industry group this week, HCFA Administrator Nancy-Ann Deparle said, "We have 100 mission-critical systems, 25 internal and 75 external. All of ou r internal systems were renovated, tested, certified and implemented by the government-wide deadline of March 31, 1999. In fact, these 25 internal systems were compliant including end-to-end and future-date testing three months ahead of that deadline. "And all 75 of our external claims processing systems -- those operated by the private insurance companies that process and pay claims -- also are certified as compliant. As of today, they have been renovated, future-date tested, are fully compliant, and are paying claims." In addition, HCFA has sent a Y2K readiness checklist to more than 1 million Medicare and Medicaid providers. The letter from DeParle and Center for Plans and Providers Robert Berenson suggests that providers not only use the checklist but contact Medicar e carriers, state Medicaid agencies and third party payers to test billing systems. Find it on the web at http://www.hcfa.gov/y2k/2y2kmd.txt. Fed Poses Lending Program The Federal Reserve is seeking public comment on a plan to create a special loan program aimed at tapping down Millennium fears. The program would provide emergency lending funds to banks, thrifts and credit unions. The Fed has already said it will incr ease new currency in circulation by $50 billion. Group Issues Warning on Five UK Sectors Britain's National Audit Office says the nation's police, fire and rescue services, hospitals, financial service firms and gas shippers and suppliers all risk running up against a Millennial wall. The oversight group says that while the Y2K efforts of th e UK's central government agencies are on target, local governments show wide variations. Bug Gums Works for Tar Heel Motorists Hundreds of North Carolina motorists have been notified by the state that their next auto emission test is due in 1910. The glitch affected software at 270 inspection stations in Mecklenburg, Union, Cabarrus and Gaston counties. Business to Business CACI International Inc., Arlington, VA, has been awarded an IV&V contract by the Commonwealth of Virginia's Century Date Change Initiative. Computer Technology Associates, Inc.s, Bethesda, MD, has had their Y2K contract extended by Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) to provide additional services. Viasoft, Inc., Phoenix, AZ, has won a Y2K contract with the U.S. Marine Corps. ITAA Y2K Information Center Solution Providers Directory http://www.itaa.org/script/2000vend.cfm ITAA*2000 Certification Program http://www.itaa.org/2000cert.htm Outlook Archive http://www.itaa.org/script/get2klet.cfm Legislative and Litigation Table http://www.itaa.org/year2000/legis.htm Calendar http://www.itaa.org/y2kcal.htm Vendor/User Status Questionnaires http://www.itaa.org/questmain1.htm Alternate Dispute Resolution (ADR) http://www.itaa.org/year2000/adr.htm Statement of Intention to Use ADR http://www.itaa.org/year2000/soi.htm, Y2K Mediators Seminar http://www.technologymediation.com/Y2K_seminar.htm Copyright ITAA 1999. All rights reserved. The Information Technology Association of America, 1616 N. Fort Myer Drive, Suite 1300