ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook June 4, 1999 Volume 4, No. 21 Published by the Information Technology Association of America, Arlington, VA Bob Cohen, Editor bcohen@itaa.org Read in over 80 countries around the world ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook is published every Friday to help all organizations deal more effectively with the Year 2000 software conversion. To create a subscription to this free publication, please visit ITAA on the web at https://www.itaa.org/transact/2ko utlooksub.htm. To cancel an existing subscription, visit https://www.itaa.org/transact/2kremove.htm. ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook is sponsored in part by CACI International Inc., DMR Consulting Group Inc and Y2Kplus. In this Issue: Naval War College Sets Sights on Y2K Controversial Study Flies in the Face of Airports, FAA Phillipines Passes Y2K Disclosure Law Naval War College Sets Sights on Y2K Drawing a box around the Year 2000 problem is a little like shoveling fleas with a fork. The problem jumps around much too much to make the effort manageable, much less productive. But now the U.S. Naval War College has taken a stab at some big picture theorizing. The intent of this effort is to prepare the Department of Defense to deal with what it does not know about the Y2K rollover, and to respond to the new and unforeseen chal lenges unleashed around the world. The Y2K International Consequence Management project is the brainchild of Vice Admiral Arthur Cebrowski, who heads the war college and saw the Year 2000 computer glitch as a natural for the kind of future gazing his organization does best. Dr. Thomas Bar nett serves as project director. Barnett views the Year 2000 in nothing less than historic terms, saying that the date drama will tell anyone willing to listen important things about the global economy and the nature of crisis in highly interdependent ne twork systems-be they technical, social, economic, or governmental. The war college team drew its Y2K box with the help of a series of experts and through a series of workshops, starting last December. They began by looking at the types of outages and disruptions that could occur and parsed these into a series of “onset models,” from isolated and short term to widespread and sustained. This led to the development of a series of scenarios covering everything from the trivial to the tumultuous, a series of phases during which Y2K driven events will unfold, and a list of p ossible behaviors and outcomes for each “networked” group. For example, during the Y2K “mania” phase-the period marked by a dramatic acceleration of problem awareness, anxiety and preparation predicted for summer and fall-successful network distribution and service players are expected to stockpile supplies while their less financially fortunate counterparts will lack the cash and fail to do so. Businesses will respond in the same timeframe by creating alternative arrangements with business partners while shunning the unprepared Y2K “lepers” in their midst. Later, during the “count down” phase, governments get to grapple with issues like “authority on tap,” referring to the need to stick to known authoritative bodies and avoid late introductions of special governance situations. Such moves, according to the war college project, are likely “to be met with suspicion or resistance by many in the population.” Barnett says he feels confident that the matrix is on target for the early phases of the Year 2000, but allows that anything after the problem onset phase is a best guess. While the project is intended to help DoD find its way in what may be something of a strange new world, at least temporarily, the project staff received a dose of equanimity when they took their work to Wall Street last month. “We got our heads turned ar ound,” Barnett said, referring to the decidedly different way financial gurus view the possibility of digital danger. Barnett said this group was much more likely to see Y2K as part of the normal workings of the market, with companies wise to the working s of the new economy apt to succeed. “They view the Y2K crisis as different in degree but not in kind” as other market perturbations, such as the woes which hit Asia’s financial markets. Doomsday scenarios set in play by computer dates do not appear to fit the Wall Street vision. But why should the viewpoint of this sector receive greater credence than others, particularly when the outcome is so quintessentially unknowable? “They are the fastest conduits to a panic response,” Barnett said, noting that if people were doing strange things with their money, these brokers and dealers would be the first to know. The war college researcher offers several reasons why the financial markets may have a better crystal ball. First, he said, they demonstrated a pure market reaction by sensing the risk posed by Year 2000 and responding to it. Second, the global financia l market it has changed. “In 1996 and 1997, there was a lot of gypsy money floating around the planet,” Barnett said. Then came the financial ricochet from Asia to Russia to Brazil. Naïve impressions about emerging markets disappeared, the fiscal behav ior of some governments changed for the better, and the transparency of hedge funds improved. As a result, Barnett suggests that Y2K will play out on a sturdier global financial stage. That doesn’t mean, of course, that Barnett is ready to call the date risks removed or his project moot; on the contrary, he says Y2K has the potential for dramatic global impact. Asked how dramatic, he breaks the question down into two parts. In talking about a particular country, he says, first look at the degree to which its systems are distributed: not just technical networks, but the economy, politics and society. Barnett says he is less worried about countries with free markets. “Where would yo u like to spend a natural disaster outside the United States?” he asks. Probably not in more centralized economies like China and Russia. Next, he looks at how well the country in question plays the new economy, accounts for shifting alliances and hedge s global bets. Those that play well, he says, will do relatively better with Y2K. The war college effort continues as Barnett and company brief DoD joint staff, CINCs and intelligence agencies about this model and its findings. Find the work on the web at http://www.nwc.navy.mil/dsd/y2ksited/y2kproj.htm. Controversial Study Flies in the Face of Airports, FAA Aviation Consultants Michael Boyd and Michael Baiada released a recent study predicting major losses for airlines and airports as a result of the millennium bug. The study questions the dependability of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and their Air Traffic Control (ATC) in the face of potential computer malfunctions due to Y2K. “The complexity of the current ATC system, along with the FAA’s (inefficient) past project performance, should be cause for concern on the part of Congress, the consume r, airports, and the airline industry. With stakes this high, assuming that the FAA will suddenly become project-efficient is foolhardy,” the report warned. The FAA dismissed the report’s claims, spokesman Paul Takemoto claimed it was “so far out in left field” as to not warrant attention. However, Raymond Long, head of the agency’s Year 2000 project, contacted Boyd to question the study. In an e-mail provi ded to World Airport Week, Long said, “As the Director and leader of the Y2K effort, I request that you come meet me personally before making any further statements as you have already published.” Takemoto also asserted that the consultants had not spok en to anyone at the FAA when compiling the report, but e-mail evidence between Boyd and Baiada reveal lengthy correspondence between the two groups. Boyd concluded that “We have a rickety, broken down Air Traffic Control System. The best we can hope for is it will work as bad as it does now in January 2000.” Phillipines Passes Y2K Disclosure Law This week Phillipines President Joseph Estrada signed a law requiring firms in the country to fully disclose their Y2K preparations. The President is also seeking to prioritize certain sectors of his government and the private sector for Y2K readiness, s uch as telecommunications and banking. Estrada admitted, “there are still gaping holes” in the country’s readiness for Y2K, and believes the bill will promote an environment of transparency, and exchange of valuable information to help address the countr y’s Y2K woes. Business to Business EuroSoft Corporation, North Palm Beach, FL, has announced that its wholly owned Finnish subsidiary, Do-it Development International OY, has won a Y2K contract with a Kuwaiti-based shipping company. Century Technology Services, Inc., Fairfax, VA, has won eight Y2K embedded systems contracts with a variety of commercial businesses. CACI International Inc., Arlington, VA, has been awarded a blanket purchase agreement by the General Services Administration Office of Information Security. ITAA Y2K Information Center Solution Providers Directory http://www.itaa.org/script/2000vend.cfm ITAA*2000 Certification Program http://www.itaa.org/2000cert.htm Outlook Archive http://www.itaa.org/script/get2klet.cfm Legislative and Litigation Table http://www.itaa.org/year2000/legis.htm Calendar http://www.itaa.org/y2kcal.htm Vendor/User Status Questionnaires http://www.itaa.org/questmain1.htm Alternate Dispute Resolution (ADR) http://www.itaa.org/year2000/adr.htm Statement of Intention to Use ADR http://www.itaa.org/year2000/soi.htm, Y2K Mediators Seminar http://www.technologymediation.com/Y2K_seminar.htm Copyright ITAA 1999. All rights reserved. The Information Technology Association of America, 1616 N. Fort Myer Drive, Suite 1300