ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook September 24, 1999 Volume 4, No. 32 Published by the Information Technology Association of America, Arlington, VA Tinabeth Burton, Editor tburton@itaa.org Read in over 80 countries around the world ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook is published every Friday to help all organizations deal more effectively with the Year 2000 software conversion. To create a subscription to this free publication, please visit ITAA on the web at https://www.itaa.org/transact/2ko utlooksub.htm. To cancel an existing subscription, visit https://www.itaa.org/transact/2kremove.htm. ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook is sponsored in part by CACI International Inc., DMR Consulting Group Inc and Y2Kplus. In this Issue: . Survey Reveals Y2K Community Confidence Growing . Senate Y2K Committee Releases Final Report . New Year's Travelers Placed on Global Y2K Standby . ITAA Y2K Information Center . Sponsor Advertising Survey Reveals Y2K Community Confidence Growing Over 325 Year 2000 Outlook readers responded to the Year 2000 Endgame survey issued in August. Responses from 15 different industries indicate great confidence in the progress made in addressing Y2K. With only seven percent of survey respondents ting major problems for their organizations, and 42% saying they believe the problem is largely under control in the U.S. and another 27% leaning in this direction, many appear ready to exhale with regard to Y2K. The survey was designed to assess endgame strategies and readiness of organizations in order to aid the Information Technology Association of America in evaluating Y2K preparedness. Respondents were asked a variety of questions related to testing, precau tions, contexts, impacts and outcomes. The picture painted by the survey is generally positive, although signs of possible trouble may still exist just below the surface. Among the survey's major indicators: . Even if Y2K problems occur, almost 50 percent of respondents say outages will last several hours or less; . Only seven percent of respondents foresee outages lasting one or more weeks; . Only five percent of respondents say that Y2K mishaps are apt to drive competitors out of business; . Two percent of respondents anticipate losing their jobs over the date issue and only three percent expect to see a co-worker go jobless should computers fail; Also of interest, and perhaps of concern: . Fifty-five percent of respondents said their organizations have assembled a rigorous Y2K test plan and another 15 percent are leaning in this direction. . Less than one-third of respondents report a rigorous contingency plan in place; . Sixty-eight percent of respondents said their organizations are creating Y2K command centers. . Only 15 percent of respondents expect to find themselves defendants in Y2K-related lawsuits; almost three times more respondents say they do not expect to find themselves plaintiffs in Y2K lawsuits; . A majority of respondents said federal and state Y2K liability limiting laws will prove helpful; . If Y2K causes serious problems to occur, almost one of four respondents (23 percent) say this will definitely affect how they vote; when those "undecided" are added, the number jumps to over one in three. The e-mail based survey was conducted in August 1999 using online marketing tools made available by Seattle-based NetReflector. Forty-seven percent of responding companies have over 1000 employees; 33 percent of respondents generated gross revenues of $1 00 million or more. The government industry was most represented with 25 percent of the total response, followed by IT (19 percent), manufacturing (18 percent) and health care/pharmaceuticals (14 percent). To read an executive summary of the survey, vis it http://www.itaa.org/software/research/indpulse/endgame.htm. Senate Y2K Committee Releases Final Report Starting the final countdown to Y2K, the Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Problem released its final report Wednesday. The release of the report coincided with the beginning of the final 100 days before Y2K arrives. While serious concer in across the nation – especially in health care, small businesses, education, and local government, the report concludes that the United States is, largely, prepared for "The Millennium Bug." "There is probably more complacency that will come out of this than we would like," Senator Robert F. Bennett, chairman of the committee, said Wednesday. "We are in much better shape than I would have anticipated a year and a half ago but people through the details of the report will find plenty of indication that there is still much work to be done," the Utah Republican continued. The report, which can be found at www.senate.gov/~y2k/documents/100dayrpt, contains few surprises for anyone who follows this issue closely. The important national economic and infrastructure backbones of the American economy – the financial serv dustry, power, water, telephone systems – were rated as highly prepared, based on assessments of repairs, testing, and backup plans. The report goes on, however, to caution that the could be a few to many instances of local problems and that citizens sho uld be checking on the state of readiness of their local systems. The committee's biggest area of concern remains the American healthcare system. In this $1.5 trillion industry, there has been significant progress in remediation programs at drug companies, distributors, and major hospitals. Grave concerns were sed about the readiness of computers in the nation's 50,000 doctors offices and 15,000 nursing homes. The concerns relate to the committee's inability to get information about these systems rather than performance failures during any testing or evaluatio n period. As for the nation's business and manufacturing sector, the New York Times reports that "Year 2000 flaws have been popping up for years in software." A report on large companies sponsored by CAP Gemini America, an information technology consulting y, "that 82 percent of large companies had already encountered [Year 2000 flaws], up from 75 percent three months ago – but the first weeks of January are expected to bring the largest volume of malfunctions." Threats from abroad also place the United States and its citizens at risk. According to the report "Some of our important trading partners are months behind in addressing the Y2K problem and are not likely to avoid significant disruptions… [which have adverse economic effects here at home and, in some developing countries, result in requests for humanitarian assistance." The report also raises the issue of legal liability to American corporations doing business overseas. "The potential exists for certain countries to utilize their laws to unfairly recoup the costs of Y2K remediation by holding U.S. firms liable f related disruptions." The committee concludes that the Year 200 problem highlights just how vulnerable the information age computer economy is to disruption. That vulnerability could, under some circumstances, be exploited by foreign powers or terrorist groups to wrec on the economy and should not be overlooked. This is the final report that will be issued by the committee prior to January 1, 2000, although, a spokesman indicated, hearings will continue to be held. New Year's Travelers Placed on Global Y2K Standby The United States Department of State is preparing, country-by-country Y2K evaluations and warnings for Americans living or traveling overseas in any of the world's 194 nations. The evaluations will provide details as to how Americans may expect nconvenienced by power outages, transport system failures, water shortages and other potentially serious Y2K issues. Publicly identifying these nations as risks is proving to be politically sensitive. The State Department is going to great lengths to present them as "objective, non-comparative" and non-alarmist. The Bureau of Consular Affairs said comments about the Y 2K efforts would be added to each nation's updated consular information sheet - available on the State Department Internet site at . Details about each country will be updated periodically as countries improve. The general consensus developing in the United States is that the rest of the world will be more profoundly affected by Y2K than we will. According to a report from the Reuters Newswire, that sentiment is not universal. The Canadian foreign ministry has issued a report on the "so-called Millennium Bug" that suggests Canadian visitors to the United States and Russia could find themselves stuck where they are because of Y2K problems. The study of 50 countries publ y the Ministry indicates visitors to Russia, the United States, Ukraine, the Czech Republic, Pakistan, and Hungary should be prepared for trouble as a result of widespread systems failures. The study makes clear that air travelers to the United States sh ould plan for possible disruptions in service, noting that the U.S. air traffic control system had not yet met its Y2K compliance goals. The report notes "Air carriers and larger airports are making significant progress, but local airports and transit services in small communities are rural areas are not doing so well." In a related story, Canada's two major airlines - Air Canada and Canadian Airlines - have reduced New Year's Eve and New Year's Day flights owing to reduced consumer demand, and not because of Y2K concerns, spokesmen for both airlines said. Consumer jitters over air travel in the transition period have not been eased by the failure of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) - a United Nations-affiliated body - to produce on time a report ensuring the safety of flight control sys tem in its 185 member countries. The report, due to be released at the end of July 1999, is on hold because 35 of the group's member nations have not responded to the survey as of September 1. Canada and the United States have submitted their reports. "From a safety perspective, there are no problems in major countries," Denis Chagon, a spokesman for ICAO said. According to Reuters, Virgin Atlantic Airways, Vietnam Airlines, and Poland's LOT have already canceled all flights on New Year's Eve. ITAA Y2K Information Center Solution Providers Directory http://www.itaa.org/script/2000vend.cfm ITAA*2000 Certification Program http://www.itaa.org/2000cert.htm Outlook Archive http://www.itaa.org/script/get2klet.cfm Legislative and Litigation Table http://www.itaa.org/year2000/legis.htm Calendar http://www.itaa.org/y2kcal.htm Vendor/User Status Questionnaires http://www.itaa.org/questmain1.htm Alternate Dispute Resolution (ADR) http://www.itaa.org/year2000/adr.htm Statement of Intention to Use ADR http://www.itaa.org/year2000/soi.htm, Y2K Mediators Seminar http://www.technologymediation.com/Y2K_seminar.htm Copyright ITAA 1999. All rights reserved. The Information Technology Association of America, 1616 N. Fort Myer Drive, Suite 1300